Arakan-American Synergy is Coming?

Geopolitical Shifts and the Role of US-Bangladesh Collaboration in Rakhine State

Flag of ULA: United League of Arakan, US, Bangladesh, China, ASEAN, AA: Arakan Army

Abstract

The Arakan region, historically significant and geopolitically volatile, stands at a critical juncture as recent developments suggest a potential US-Bangladesh synergy aimed at reshaping the dynamics of Myanmar’s Rakhine State. Reports indicate that the Bangladesh Army, with backing from the United States, is poised to provide logistical and tactical support to a coalition of insurgent forces, including the Arakan Army (AA) and the Chin National Front (CNF), in a clandestine operation against Myanmar’s military junta. This article examines the strategic implications of this collaboration, its potential to empower the Arakan people, and the broader geopolitical ramifications, particularly in light of China’s countervailing influence in Myanmar. Drawing on recent reports, including Northeast News, and global media such as The New York Times and Time, this analysis situates the Arakan-American synergy within the context of regional power struggles, Rohingya repatriation efforts, and the quest for stability in Rakhine State. The article argues that while this synergy offers opportunities for Arakan self-determination, it also risks escalating tensions in an already fragile region.

Introduction

Rakhine State, historically known as Arakan, is a region marked by ethnic diversity, resource wealth, and protracted conflict. The Arakan people, predominantly Buddhist Rakhine, alongside the Muslim Rohingya minority, have faced systemic marginalization under Myanmar’s military junta, which has retained control over only three townships in the state as of April 2025. The Arakan Army (AA), a powerful ethnic militia, has capitalized on the junta’s weakening grip, capturing 15 of 18 townships and positioning itself as a de facto governing authority. Concurrently, reports of a US-backed initiative involving the Bangladesh Army signal a new phase in Rakhine’s geopolitical landscape. This initiative, detailed in a Northeast News article dated April 16, 2025, involves logistical support for the AA and CNF, alongside plans for a supply base in Teknaf and a drone base at Cox’s Bazar airport. This article explores whether this “Arakan-American synergy” could herald a transformative moment for the Arakan people, while critically assessing the risks of proxy warfare, regional destabilization, and the complex interplay of Rohingya repatriation efforts.

Strategic Framework of US-Bangladesh Collaboration

Logistical and Tactical Support

The Bangladesh Army’s involvement in Rakhine is framed as non-combatant, focusing on logistics and supplies for a coalition of insurgent forces. According to Northeast News, the 10th, 17th, and 24th Divisions of the Bangladesh Army will facilitate the delivery of non-lethal supplies, such as rations, through a newly constructed facility near Teknaf. Additionally, the expansion of Cox’s Bazar airport into a drone base for Turkish unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) underscores the technological dimension of this support. These developments align with a broader US strategy to counter the Myanmar junta, which has lost significant territorial control since the 2021 coup. The involvement of high-ranking US officials, including Susan Stevenson, the US chargé d’affaires in Naypyidaw, and Lieutenant General Joel ‘JB’ Vowell, Deputy Commanding General of the US Army Pacific (USARPAC), highlights the strategic importance of this initiative. Vowell’s meeting with Bangladesh Army Chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman in March 2025 was a pivotal moment in solidifying this collaboration (Northeast News, April 16, 2025).

Rohingya Repatriation and the Aid Corridor

A key component of the US-Bangladesh strategy is the establishment of an “aid corridor” to facilitate the repatriation of approximately 80,000 Rohingya refugees to Buthidaung and Maungdaw, contingent on military successes in Rakhine. Bangladesh’s interim government, led by Muhammad Yunus, has prioritized resolving the Rohingya crisis, which has strained national resources and regional security. Khalilur Rahman, Bangladesh’s National Security Adviser, is spearheading efforts to identify viable repatriation pathways, with the Yunus administration compiling a list of eligible refugees. This initiative is complicated by the historical animosity between the Arakan Army and the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), a Rohingya insurgent group. The recent arrest of ARSA leader Ataullah abu Ammar Jununi in Narayanganj in March 2025 suggests a strategic move by Bangladesh to align ARSA with the broader anti-junta coalition, potentially bridging ethnic divides to strengthen the insurgency (Northeast News, April 16, 2025).

Geopolitical Context: US-China Rivalry

The US-Bangladesh collaboration must be understood within the context of intensifying US-China rivalry in Myanmar. China has openly supported the Myanmar junta, brokering a ceasefire in northern Shan State and pressuring rebel groups like the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) to withdraw from strategic areas such as Lashio. Beijing’s investments in Myanmar, including the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor and the Kyaukphyu deep-sea port, are threatened by the AA’s territorial gains. Conversely, the US seeks to deny China land-to-sea access to the Bay of Bengal, leveraging Bangladesh’s strategic position to support anti-junta forces. Subir Bhaumik’s analysis in an April 17, 2025, op-ed highlights China’s “not-so-covert” interventions and the US’s counter-strategy, noting Bangladesh’s interim government’s alignment with Washington as a means to secure political legitimacy and address the Rohingya crisis (Bhaumik, 2025).

Implications for the Arakan People

Empowerment through Self-Determination

The Arakan Army’s dominance in Rakhine State positions it as a potential steward of Arakan self-determination. The AA’s capture of key townships, including Maungdaw and Buthidaung, has created a proto-state under its political wing, the United League of Arakan (ULA). The US-Bangladesh synergy could bolster the AA’s military and logistical capabilities, enabling it to consolidate control and establish governance structures. The AA’s commitment to protecting foreign investments, as noted in its avoidance of attacking China’s Kyaukphyu port, suggests a pragmatic approach to regional integration, which could benefit the Arakan people economically (Bhaumik, 2025). Furthermore, the AA’s evolving stance toward the Rohingya, emphasizing inclusivity despite past tensions, offers hope for reconciliation and a multi-ethnic Arakan identity (ORF, January 24, 2025).

Risks of Escalation and Proxy Warfare

Despite these opportunities, the US-Bangladesh initiative risks escalating Rakhine’s conflict into a proxy war. China’s support for the junta and pressure on rebel groups like the MNDAA and Kachin Independence Army (KIA) could lead to retaliatory actions, destabilizing the region. The deployment of Turkish UAVs from Cox’s Bazar raises concerns about technological escalation, potentially drawing Bangladesh into direct conflict with Myanmar. Moreover, the integration of ARSA into the anti-junta coalition is fraught with challenges, given its history of violence against Rohingya civilians and its designation as a terrorist organization by Myanmar and Malaysia (The New York Times, March 19, 2025). ARSA’s historical opposition to the AA and its designation as a terrorist group by Myanmar and Malaysia complicate integration efforts, with ongoing challenges in fostering trust and cooperation among communities adding to the complexity(VOA, January 9, 2025).

Global Media Perspectives

Global media outlets have closely followed Rakhine’s evolving dynamics, offering insights into the Arakan-American synergy. The New York Times (March 19, 2025) reported on Ataullah’s arrest, framing it as a critical step in addressing ARSA’s role in the Rohingya crisis while noting the broader implications for US-backed operations. Time magazine, in a January 2025 feature, highlighted the AA’s territorial gains as a turning point in Myanmar’s civil war, emphasizing the need for international oversight to protect Rohingya rights. The Financial Express (March 23, 2025) underscored Vowell’s visit to Dhaka as a signal of US commitment to regional stability, while Arab News (December 12, 2024) noted Bangladesh’s heightened border security in response to the AA’s control of Rakhine’s frontier. These perspectives collectively underscore the global stakes of the US-Bangladesh initiative and its potential to reshape Arakan’s future.

Recommendations for a Sustainable Arakan Future

1. Inclusive Governance: The AA must prioritize inclusive governance, engaging Rohingya and other minorities in decision-making to foster ethnic reconciliation. The US and Bangladesh should support capacity-building for local institutions under the ULA.
2. International Oversight: A UN-backed safe zone, as proposed by Muhammad Yunus, could ensure Rohingya repatriation occurs under international supervision, mitigating risks of violence (The Daily Star, December 12, 2024).
3. Conflict De-escalation: The US should engage China diplomatically to prevent Rakhine from becoming a proxy war theater, potentially through ASEAN-mediated talks.
4. Economic Development: Investments in Rakhine’s infrastructure, such as the Kaladan Multimodal Transport Project, should be protected and expanded to benefit the Arakan people, with India playing a pivotal role (Northeast News, March 23, 2025).

Conclusion

The Arakan-American synergy, as evidenced by the US-Bangladesh collaboration in Rakhine State, represents a pivotal moment for the Arakan people. By supporting the Arakan Army and facilitating Rohingya repatriation, this initiative could empower local self-determination and address longstanding humanitarian crises. However, the risks of escalation, ethnic tensions, and geopolitical rivalry necessitate cautious implementation. As Rakhine stands on the brink of transformation, the international community must prioritize inclusive governance, humanitarian protection, and regional stability to ensure that the Arakan people’s aspirations are realized.

The question remains: will this synergy herald a new era for Arakan, or will it deepen the region’s complex conflicts?

 

References:

Bhaumik, S. (2025). Chinese Covert Intervention in Myanmar Amidst Possible Proxy War with US — OpEd. Eurasia Review, April 17, 2025.

Nandy, C. (2025). Bangladesh Army to Lead US-Backed Clandestine Operations in Myanmar’s Rakhine State. Northeast News, April 16, 2025.

The New York Times. (2025). Armed Rohingya Group’s Leader Is Arrested in Bangladesh. March 19, 2025.

The Financial Express. (2025). US General Visiting Dhaka Ahead of Arakan Army Offensive in Rakhine. March 23, 2025.

The Daily Star. (2024). Bangladesh New Rohingya Policy Considerations. December 12, 2024.

Voice of America. (2025). As Arakan Army Gains Ground in Myanmar, Peace Remains Elusive. January 9, 2025.

Arab News. (2024). Bangladesh Boosts Border Security as Arakan Army Claims Control of Myanmar’s Rakhine. December 12, 2024.

Online Rohingya Foundation. (2025). Arakan Army’s Growing Influence in Myanmar: Implications for the Rohingyas. January 24, 2025.